Worsening Ties Between America and Iran
Iran and America are in a tussle of the century. Since its withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal, US has been gradually tightening its sanctions on Iran. In a recent move, it has decided to sanction Iran’s oil trade with the world. Assumption is that since Iranian economy is largely dependent on oil export, sanctions will block Iran’s oil revenues. And without oil revenues, Iranian economy will be, at best, meager. A crippling Iran will have to give up its support for its proxies in the region — Hezollah in Lebanon, Huthis in Yemen, and other anti-Israel, anti-Saudi groups that it backs. It will also be coerced into giving up its pursuit of nuclear bomb without limiting US and its allies in any way by some kind deal with an ‘evil’ power, as George W. Bush would have put it, and, to utter delight of Israel, without any Sunset Clause.
In the past, when sanctions were put, Iran was allowed to sell its oil to its main buyers — China and India being the top two. It allowed the sanction-stricken country to sustain in the absence of normal trade with other countries, particularly the EU. Until recently, even Trump administration was issuing waivers to few countries to allow them to trade with Iran. Now, it has decided to not reissue the waivers. In the absence of waiver, any country trading with Iran will automatically be violating the US-put sanctions and will be trading at the cost of its relations with US. Since most countries value their relationship with US more than they value it with Iran, there is a growing consensus that sooner or later, realizing their interests, most countries will abandon Iran.
Europe has so far upheld the treaty. But it is unlikely that it will risk transatlantic partnership for Iran. India is unlikely to risk it as well. However, China and Russia have taken a strong stance against US misuse of economic sanctions and its withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal (or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Increasingly in the West, China and Russia are now seen as challenging the US-led liberal international order. Their likely collaboration with Iran in defiance to US can usher into first diplomatic stand-off between great powers, particularly between China and the United States.
Immediate implication of US withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal and subsequent tightening of sanctions has been that Iran has abandoned certain parts of the Deal. To Europe, it has given an ultimatum of 60 days to take a stand against Trumps recklessness. Europe has rejected the ultimatum but has decided to stay in the deal.
It seems that Europe is faced by a dilemma. It wants Iran to abide by the deal and wants to continue upholding it if Iran abides by it as well. On the other hand, it does not want to push Trump because he has repeatedly shown, by words and actions, that he does not like Europe much. This play-safe approach of Europe does not serve Iran that wants Europe to take a tougher stance against the one, United States, that backed out of the treaty instead of letting it to penalize Iran for abiding by the deal.
Recently, another fallout of US withdrawal from the deal became clear when Iran, in an interesting development, decided to use its strategic location for pushing back American threats. Iran threatened to block Strait of Hormuz if U.S blocks its trade with the world. Strait of Hormuz is the major energy trade route in the Gulf. A third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and almost 20% of total global oil production passes through the strait, making it a highly important strategic location for international trade. If Iran decides to pursue its stated claims and disrupts the energy supplies, it might lead to an actual all out confrontation between Iranian Revolutionary guards and American forces in the region.
However, Iranian threat can actually turn out to be a deterrent as well, making America roll back its march against the very survival of Gulf state. Reportedly, soon after Iranian threat, Donald Trump expressed desire to talk to the Iranian. In a rather amusing move, the White House contacted the Swiss to share a phone number the Iranians could call the President on. However, statement by Revolutionary Guard clearly rejected the offer.
It remains to be seen how this competition evolves from here. Trump is increasingly recognized as a President ready to soften before tough leaders, almost going to an extent to pacify them. Obvious examples would be Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin. However, one thing that would bar Trump from softening up towards Iran is Israel and Israeli lobbyists. Following the escalation, on May 8, Danny Danon, Israeli Ambassador to UN told Security Council that Iran should not be given another chance. Trump can afford to soften up towards Putin and Kim because Israel does not have any direct interests via a vis the two. However, since Israel’s influence in legislative bodies of America and a conservative President who is vehemently pro-Israel, it seems appropriate to conclude that Israel does influence, if not decide, what American policy would be in Middle East and particularly towards Iran.
Tensions are simmering. However, it is unlikely that Donald Trump will go for an all out confrontation with Iran, seeing his eagerness to pull out of Middle East. However, the pressure on Iran is real. It remains to be seen whether Europe will be able to persuade Trump to soften up, and whether China and Russia will lock horns with the hegemon.
